The rise and fall of public

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The rise and fall of public

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate.

The rise and fall of public

Notes considerable English seasonal variability over the centuries Examines the key component parts of the weather that affect the British Isles Queries whether wind direction, strength and longevity are major factors in shaping our climate over the centuries.

Weather comprises the day to day events that we all experience. Climate is officially the trend of the weather often temperature and rainfall taken over a continuous thirty year period.

The two terms have sometimes been used in an interchangeable manner here, when a period of more than a year is being examined. This article commented on the interesting-but not climatically valid-observation that no one born in England this century has known warming; in fact there had been a slight decline in temperatures, albeit still maintained at a historically high level.

It shows this decline continuing, although recent warm seasons have slightly reduced the downwards trend Figure 1 To put this into a much broader context, here is the seasonal data from the start of the CET record in Figure 2 Figure 2a linked here [ 2a ], shows the seasonal temperatures in much greater detail.

This graphic shows some of the stations identified as cooling over the statistically meaningful period of at least 30 years Figure 3 The take home message was that whilst undoubtedly most stations around the world had warmed in recent decades, it could be observed that there were large warming AND cooling trends in many places.

With regards to cooling, some one third of stations worldwide showed a trend that was downwards, rather than upwards. This was confirmed by Richard Muller of the BEST project several years ago in a personal email, but it must be said there are many caveats to this observation, especially as regards the length, amount and consistency of this cooling.

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The blue circles show locations where the trend line has indicated cooling weather over the last years. The red crosses show where it has warmed.

The context of this UHI adjustment can be seen in this graphic showing population growth. Figure 5 The same data is shown below, excluding the population data which somewhat distorts the axis of the graphs Figure 6 In considering the urbanisation factor used, it can be noted that the current population of Greater London is the same as that of the whole of England years ago.

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One of the stations used in recent times, Ringway, was situated near a rapidly expanding airport. It was retired in England at ,sq km and a population of 55 million, is less than the size of New York state at ,sq km with a population of 20 million.

So England, with its small size and large population could be considered one large heat island with the CET stations in the middle of it. In recent emails with the Met office I understand that during they carried out some work with regards to re-evaluating the CET daily and monthly series and current urbanisation adjustments have been revisited.

The result is that a new version of CET with supporting documentation is currently being formulated. Any differentiation with the existing series will need to be scientifically justified.

The immense amount of scientific analysis that goes into making adjustments to the record can be seen in this paper written by Met Office authors [ link ].

The rise and fall of public

So it may end up that the urbanisation corrections could be larger for more recent years, but to comment on the likely adjustments, if any, would be mere speculation at this point. Setting that issue aside for the time being, we can extract a variety of other data from an analysis of the seasons.

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