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People have a hard time predicting the future especially when it comes to economic behavior. Many people saw the housing boom and bust but few had the wherewithal to take action at optimal points. Once the herd catches wind, it is usually too late.
How many people rushed in at the tail end of the technology bubble only to see their investments vaporize into thin air? Treasury and Federal Reserve know full well that bubbles and their subsequent busts are only part of human nature.
We learned painful lessons during the Great Depression and reigned in the banking sector. It took a full generation to forget all those important rules of the road. We can look at the s and s to see how quickly things can spiral out of control with mortgage rates and all things connected to the interest rate.
I did some sleuthing and pulled up some fascinating articles in older newspapers showing how the typical mortgage rate went from 7. It is hard for people to imagine this but let us walk through what happened with the benefit of hindsight.
Let us chart out the average 30 year fixed mortgage, Fed funds rate, and CPI rate of change: During the start of the s the 30 year fixed mortgage rate started at 7.
By the late s the rate was already over 10 percent and by it reached a peak at approximately The Federal Reserve with the help of Paul Volcker brought inflation under control by raising the Fed funds rate over Unlike the current U.
Treasury and Federal Reservewe had someone at the head of the ship concerned with the viability of the dollar and put mortgages on the back burner. This current Fed and Treasury is concerned more with appeasing the crony bankers on Wall Street.
But let us walk through the above chronologically with snippets from papers: The Milwaukee Journal — Jul 6, Competing with other forms of deposit vehicles, banks and savings and loans were allowed to raise interest rates to attract money.
As you might remember Americans were actually saving some money at this time so banks did have to compete for major deposits instead of getting massive bailouts from the government. So banks started increasing their deposit rates.
At the time mortgage rates were around 7. What followed was rampant inflation. The above is a fascinating advertisement from Rates are now moving on up.
By the 30 year fixed mortgage is now up to 9 percent but home prices are going up. This was the decade of stagflation but incomes were also going up so there was a form of balance at least.
The ad is interesting because it talks about buying today assuming home prices will go up no matter what. So what if rates go lower? This ad was for a product that locked in your rate should rates go down.
Today, we have nowhere to go but up. Our current predicament is a troubling one. The biggest item in a household balance sheet and the entire CPI missed it. So when we look at our first chart, inflation might seem subdued during the s but it was running rampant in housing prices.
Treasury and Federal Reserve knew this so housing prices going up was of no worry; in fact this was their desired goal. But as the s went further into inflation madness, things started getting out of hand.
Eugene Register-Guard — Oct 11, Now the above piece is fascinating. The Fed at this time had its eyes set on controlling inflation and commodity speculation.Business Questions and Answers - Discover the leslutinsduphoenix.com community of teachers, mentors and students just like you that can answer any question you might have on Business.
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